Indonesia is once again at a crossroads in its climate journey. The government had promised to submit its Second Nationally Determined Contribution (SNDC) earlier this year, yet the draft remains stuck in the approval process. With the September 2025 deadline looming, Indonesia’s climate credibility is at stake.
The Paris Agreement, signed by 196 countries in 2015, requires nations to submit updated climate action plans—known as NDCs—every five years. These plans must outline how each country will cut emissions and adapt to climate change, with each submission more ambitious than the last. The aim is to keep global warming below 1.5°C, a threshold scientists say is critical to avoid catastrophic impacts such as sea-level rise, extreme weather, and ecosystem collapse.
Indonesia’s first NDC in 2016 pledged to cut emissions by 29 percent through its own efforts, or 41 percent with international support, by 2030. This was followed in 2021 by an update that introduced adaptation targets for livelihoods, ecosystems, and the economy. The Enhanced NDC in 2022 went further, raising ambition to 31.89 percent domestically and 43.2 percent with external assistance. By late 2024, the government had prepared a draft of its Second NDC, expanding coverage to more sectors and reaffirming the long-term goal of reaching net zero by 2060 or sooner. But as of today, the plan remains unsigned and unsubmitted, casting doubt on the government’s resolve.
The delay is not just a technical issue—it reflects deeper contradictions in policy. On one hand, Indonesia speaks of “more ambitious” commitments, even exploring new approaches like blue carbon. On the other, President Prabowo has openly called for expanding oil palm plantations, brushing off deforestation concerns by saying “a palm is also a tree.” Around the same time, the Minister of Forestry floated the idea of using 20 million hectares of reserve forest land for food, energy, and water reserves—an announcement that quickly drew criticism from environmentalists. While later clarified as agroforestry, the plan underscored the government’s willingness to prioritize short-term economic projects over long-term sustainability.
This tension between development and climate responsibility has long defined Indonesia’s climate policy. Economic growth is vital, but if pursued through deforestation and fossil fuel dependency, it risks eroding the very commitments the country is trying to uphold.
The draft SNDC contains some positive steps, including broader sector coverage and a clearer baseline year. Yet it still relies heavily on forestry offsets while leaving critical questions unanswered about coal, renewable energy, and financing. Without clear commitments to accelerate a just energy transition, enforce forest protection, and strengthen adaptation, the plan risks being seen as ambitious on paper but weak in reality.
As the September deadline approaches, Indonesia has an opportunity to send a strong signal: that it is serious about its international obligations, serious about protecting its people and ecosystems, and serious about contributing to the global fight against climate change. But that will only happen if the government moves beyond contradictory statements and ensures that its policies align with its promises.
The world is watching. Indonesia’s Second NDC will not only define its standing under the Paris Agreement—it will also shape its legacy for generations to come.
